By Bret Biggart
Back in November 2022, I wrote that passage of the Inflation Reduction Act “created a runway for solar power unlike any we’ve ever seen.” The law told consumers and solar companies that for the next 10 years, federal tax credits would reimburse 30% of the cost of new solar systems (as well as battery projects and efficiency upgrades).
Last month, Congress lined up some bulldozers and jackhammers and turned that runway into a gravel strip.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act — that’s the law’s actual name, apparently not intentionally ironic — ripped away some of those tax credits. Homeowners, businesses, and other energy consumers who want to buy solar systems have until the end of this year to get them installed, which really means consumers have until probably October to order systems so they can be activated before the end of the year.
Unsurprisingly, people are rushing to get their orders in before the tax credits expire. All indications are that solar sales will be strong in 2025.
But what happens in 2026?
Well, it turns out that there was more than one runway.
Yes, tax credits for consumers who buy solar panels will go away next year. But Congress has maintained tax credits for consumers who lease their systems. So people will still be able to get help accessing this technology that helps keep them free and safe from high bills and blackouts — they’ll just have to access it in a different way.
That’s going to require a pretty big pivot — Freedom Solar will certainly have to do things differently, as will utilities and, of course, our customers. But I deeply and completely believe that we’ll figure this out and this industry will continue to grow.
Based on our internal modeling, customers who lease solar systems will still save a lot of money — in big markets like Houston and Dallas, most systems still have paid for themselves within about six years based on the money they save.
But even more than that, solar power is still a very affordable form of electricity generation, and it’s only getting cheaper. Meanwhile, these anti-energy policies that try to play favorites and punish renewables will only drive up energy bills.
So even without the tax credits, it’ll soon be clear that even buying a solar system will save money by lessening people’s dependence on a power grid that’s only getting more expensive.
As the great Doug Lewin wrote this summer before the Big Bad Bill passed, “In their attempt to knockout renewables, Congress may end up punching consumers in the mouth.” For reasons I’ll never understand, anti-energy politicians keep trying to exterminate this great and growing technology.
But at the end of the day, solar lowers power bills, and it protects people, communities, and power grids from blackouts. It’s the future — that was true before the bill passed, and it still is.